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Regional Sentiment


LNG Regional Trend Analysis – October 7, 2025

LNG Regional Trend Analysis

October 7, 2025 – Global Market Overview

Region ↕ Trend ↕ Key Indicators
North America ↑↑ Strongly Bullish US LNG exports near 2025 highs with record Europe volumes, feed gas at 16 Bcf/d (Gulf Coast shipments up 28% YTD), natural gas futures rose 2% on strong demand, Shell Q3 profits soar on production/trading, Chart-Baker Hughes $13.6B deal approved, Commonwealth LNG gets 4-year extension for 9.5 Mt/y project
Africa ↗ Bullish Mozambique $7.2B Coral Norte begins in October (doubling to 7+ Mtpa), Africa LNG output poised for 120 Mtpa by 2035 (Nigeria leading), Eni restarts Libya BESS-3 offshore drilling, Egypt Cairo-2 rig set for Mediterranean deep drilling, QatarEnergy expands Egypt presence
Europe ↗ Bullish EU US LNG use set to soar to 70% of imports 2026-2029 (from 58%), needs 160 extra cargoes this winter, US gas dependency to reach 48% of EU supply, Germany record August imports (0.7 Mt), Ukraine seeks 30% gas import increase, Ørsted raises $9.3B for renewables
Middle East ↗ Moderately Bullish Iran major gas/oil discovery in Fars province Pazan field, Saudi Arabia holds 60% of OPEC+ 4.1M bpd spare capacity, UAE leads GCC at 4.8% growth (World Bank raised Middle East forecast to 2.8%), ADNOC Gas Ruwais NGL proposals submitted, OPEC+ modest 137,000 bpd output increase
Russia → Moderate 7th Arctic LNG 2 cargo to China (shadow logistics), oil output to rise 2026-2027 as OPEC+ eases cuts (516M tons 2025), Putin backs nuclear-powered LNG carrier for Arctic, China pipeline deal takes decade to boost exports, but EU paid Russia $31.38B for energy past year despite sanctions
Asia (ex-China) → Neutral/Mixed Gas turbine shortages threaten LNG demand bonanza (wait times to end of decade), South Korea Hanwha Ocean completes world-first ship-to-ship LNG transfer, India Oil-Mahanagar Gas LNG/clean energy MoU, IGX traded record 40.7M MMBtu H1 FY26, Asian spot at $10.7/MMBtu, imports down 5% YTD
China ↓ Bearish 2025 LNG imports forecast to fall 6-11% (weak demand, mild winter), imports down 17% to 41.8 Mt Jan-Aug YTD, though accelerating oil reserve construction (11 new facilities 2025-2026), China-Iran barter trade to circumvent sanctions, absorbing Russian LNG via shadow logistics
South America ↓ Bearish US Gulf Coast fuel oil imports hit 2.5-year high amid Venezuelan/Russian sanctions, Brazil crude exports dropped significantly despite beef/soy trade surplus, Venezuela testing non-oil exports to Europe but oil-dependent economy remains under pressure
Canada/Australia ↓↓ Strongly Bearish Canada: LNG Canada Train 1 below 50% capacity (failed component), AECO prices collapsed below $0 from gas glut, Train 2 startup begins but MLA calls halt over flaring concerns, lost 28 oil rigs. Australia: Gold to overtake LNG as 2nd most valuable export (A$60B FY2026, up 28%), LNG earnings down 25% ($11B drop)

Overall Market Sentiment: North America leads with record-breaking export volumes and strong fundamentals. Europe emerges as aggressive LNG buyer planning 70% US dependency by 2029. Africa advances multi-billion dollar projects positioning for 120 Mtpa by 2035. Asia faces critical gas turbine shortage threatening demand growth, while China’s 6-11% import decline weighs on sentiment. Canada and Australia experience severe headwinds—Canada with operational failures and price collapse, Australia with LNG losing ground to gold exports. Middle East maintains steady growth with new discoveries. Russia continues shadow trade despite sanctions.

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