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Regional Sentiment


LNG Regional Trend Analysis – October 3, 2025

LNG Regional Trend Analysis

October 3, 2025 – Global Market Overview

Region ↕ Trend ↕ Key Indicators
Africa ↑↑ Strongly Bullish Eni’s $7.2B Coral Norte FLNG FID (3.6 MTPA), Mozambique security clearance for TotalEnergies’ $20B project (13 MTPA Phase 1), Ethiopia’s Ogaden LNG launch (5 MTPA), ExxonMobil targeting South Africa, Namibia’s 3rd consecutive hydrocarbon discovery
North America ↗ Bullish US weekly exports rose to 32 cargoes (1.6M tons), record exports 2nd straight month, LNG Canada Train 2 startup (doubling to 13 MTPA by early 2026), Quebec LNG project federal interest (10 MTPA), US captured 78% Latin America market share
Middle East ↗ Bullish Iraq FSRU project (3 MTPA, mid-2026 target), BP Kirkuk development, Kuwait major petrochemicals approval, Aramco-Honeywell tech advancement, ADNOC Shah gas expansion, Chinese banks funding Saudi Jafurah project
South America ↗ Moderately Bullish Brazil production record 3.9M bpd (up 16.6% YoY), Petrobras $500M renewable data center, ExxonMobil Guyana Hammerhead FPSO work, Saipem Uaru subsea project, though LNG imports down 15% YoY due to high hydropower
China ↗ Moderately Bullish Russia increasing LNG exports to China from Arctic LNG 2 (record output, 7th cargo delivered) and Sakhalin 2, 15% shipment growth in 2025, targeting 10 MTPA by 2027 via dark fleet, serious joint venture progress despite sanctions
Australia → Moderate EnerMech major subsea contract (200km pipelines through 2027), $21.9B tax revenue boost expected, but gas market remains strained despite government measures, long-term shortage warnings for southern states
Europe → Neutral/Mixed Hungary signs largest LNG deal with Engie (reducing Russian dependence), Russian gas down to 19% (from 45% in 2021), but €8.4B spent on Russian gas H1 2025, Greenpeace protests blocking Zeebrugge terminal, Equinor Hammerfest safety issues, continued LNG loopholes
Asia (ex-China) ↓ Bearish Pakistan minister says LNG “no longer key energy source” with deliveries declining sharply, Asian spot prices fell to 16-month low at $10.50/MMBtu (down 5% WoW), weak demand from Japan/South Korea, high inventories, Indonesia Dumai refinery fire
Russia ↓↓ Strongly Bearish Fuel crisis with 40% refining capacity offline from Ukrainian drone attacks, gasoline shortages in Crimea/Sevastopol requiring Belarus imports, economy at risk as oil revenues shrink prompting defense tax hikes, Russia attacked Ukraine’s Naftogaz with 381 drones + 35 missiles

Overall Market Sentiment: Africa emerges as the clear winner with multiple mega-projects advancing (Mozambique’s $27B+ combined FID/clearance, Ethiopia’s entry). North America maintains strong export momentum with record volumes and Canadian expansion. Russia faces severe domestic crisis from Ukrainian strikes offsetting its China export gains. Asian demand continues weakening with spot prices at 16-month lows, while Pakistan pivots away from LNG entirely. Middle East shows steady growth in import infrastructure and processing capacity.

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